Wed 28 Oct, 10:30 Sydney
Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics
Strong favourite: Boston Celtics. Logistic regression is the primary probability because it had the best holdout log loss. The largest contributions toward Boston Celtics are Blended net rating and Elo gap. Other rating features can point the other way when this one already carries the same information.
Model agreement
Three separate probabilities. There is no combined model. Home win chance:
Logistic regression · primary
85%
BKN 15%
Gradient boosting
88%
BKN 12%
Elo
91%
BKN 9%
What the logistic model is using
Each number is that feature’s push, in log-odds, after scaling. The model starts from a baseline home log-odds of +0.30. Positive pushes favor Boston Celtics. This is not an estimate of what would happen if one statistic changed.
Toward BOS
- Blended net rating+1.30
season net rating blended with last year, home minus away
- Elo gap+0.43
Elo rating, home minus away
- Opponent-shooting gap+0.23
effective field-goal percentage allowed, home minus away
- Away key absences+0.19
away players with 20+ expected minutes projected out
Toward BKN
- Net-rating gap-0.34
season net rating, home minus away
- Home absences-0.22
home players from the recent roster projected out
- Defensive-rating gap-0.19
season points allowed per 100 possessions, home minus away
- Offensive-rating gap-0.19
season points scored per 100 possessions, home minus away
BOS offence against BKN defence
Season-to-date rates. The last row pairs the offence’s offensive rebound rate with the defence’s own defensive rebound rate.
| Metric | BOS offence | BKN defence |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 | 119.1 | 119.3 |
| Effective FG | 56.9% | 60.7% |
| Turnover rate | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| Offensive boards / defensive boards | 30.6% | 75.7% |
BKN offence against BOS defence
Season-to-date rates. The last row pairs the offence’s offensive rebound rate with the defence’s own defensive rebound rate.
| Metric | BKN offence | BOS defence |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 | 107.1 | 108.7 |
| Effective FG | 50.2% | 51.8% |
| Turnover rate | 18.0% | 20.2% |
| Offensive boards / defensive boards | 27.9% | 69.0% |
Pace and schedule
Season pace describes how many possessions a team usually plays. The average below is only that description. It is not added on top of the win probability, and it is not a predicted score.
BKN pace
103.6
BOS pace
99.1
Average of the two
101.3
BKN
Rest days 1
Not a back-to-back
Games in the last 7 days 3
Last 10 net rating -12.2
Free throws per shot 0.26
BOS
Rest days 0
Played yesterday
Games in the last 7 days 3
Last 10 net rating +10.4
Free throws per shot 0.18
Projected rotation
Injury report 27 October 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Players ruled out are removed from the win probability. Questionable and doubtful players stay on the last-game assumption and are listed with that status. Last games used are 2026-10-25 and 2026-10-26.
Brooklyn Nets
Last played 2026-10-25 · 3 key players projected out
| Player | Last min | Expected | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Traore | 25 | 21 | -0.8 | — |
| Julius Randle | 24 | 33 | -0.4 | — |
| Keon Ellis | 23 | 25 | +0.3 | — |
| Chaney Johnson | 21 | 19 | +2.0 | — |
| Josh Minott | 21 | 22 | -6.0 | — |
| Michael Porter Jr. · fewer minutes | 21 | 30 | +3.6 | — |
| Noah Clowney · fewer minutes | 20 | 19 | -0.5 | — |
| Egor Dëmin · fewer minutes | 19 | 27 | +4.1 | — |
| Day'Ron Sharpe · fewer minutes | 16 | 21 | +9.0 | — |
| Danny Wolf · fewer minutes | 15 | 23 | +0.3 | — |
| Tyler Bilodeau · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Joshua Jefferson · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Grant Nelson · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Drake Powell · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Ben Saraf · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
Boston Celtics
Last played 2026-10-26 · 0 key players projected out
| Player | Last min | Expected | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 28 | 35 | +1.9 | — |
| Paul George | 25 | 30 | +4.9 | — |
| Hugo González | 24 | 10 | +3.4 | — |
| Payton Pritchard | 22 | 29 | -0.1 | — |
| Sam Hauser | 20 | 24 | +1.5 | — |
| Neemias Queta · fewer minutes | 19 | 25 | +4.3 | — |
| Jordan Walsh · fewer minutes | 18 | 17 | -8.8 | — |
| Baylor Scheierman · fewer minutes | 18 | 21 | -4.4 | — |
| Derrick White · fewer minutes | 18 | 31 | +6.7 | — |
| Mitchell Robinson · fewer minutes | 16 | 20 | -3.8 | — |