Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 Sydney
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
Near even. Logistic regression is the primary probability because it had the best holdout log loss. The largest contributions toward New York Knicks are Net-rating gap and Away absences. Other rating features can point the other way when this one already carries the same information.
Model agreement
Three separate probabilities. There is no combined model. Home win chance:
Logistic regression · primary
52%
DET 48%
Gradient boosting
37%
DET 63%
Elo
44%
DET 56%
These home probabilities differ by at least 10 points.
What the logistic model is using
Each number is that feature’s push, in log-odds, after scaling. The model starts from a baseline home log-odds of +0.30. Positive pushes favor New York Knicks. This is not an estimate of what would happen if one statistic changed.
Toward NYK
- Net-rating gap+0.28
season net rating, home minus away
- Offensive-rating gap+0.25
season points scored per 100 possessions, home minus away
- Away absences+0.22
away players from the recent roster projected out
- Home key absences+0.16
home players with 20+ expected minutes projected out
Toward DET
- Blended net rating-0.48
season net rating blended with last year, home minus away
- Shooting gap-0.23
effective field-goal percentage, home minus away
- Rotation-impact gap-0.22
impact of the players projected to play, home minus away
- Home absences-0.16
home players from the recent roster projected out
NYK offence against DET defence
Season-to-date rates. The last row pairs the offence’s offensive rebound rate with the defence’s own defensive rebound rate.
| Metric | NYK offence | DET defence |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 | 102.3 | 105.7 |
| Effective FG | 47.6% | 48.0% |
| Turnover rate | 16.4% | 12.3% |
| Offensive boards / defensive boards | 26.6% | 74.7% |
DET offence against NYK defence
Season-to-date rates. The last row pairs the offence’s offensive rebound rate with the defence’s own defensive rebound rate.
| Metric | DET offence | NYK defence |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 | 118.3 | 108.6 |
| Effective FG | 56.3% | 51.9% |
| Turnover rate | 18.0% | 13.1% |
| Offensive boards / defensive boards | 32.3% | 80.0% |
Pace and schedule
Season pace describes how many possessions a team usually plays. The average below is only that description. It is not added on top of the win probability, and it is not a predicted score.
DET pace
100.0
NYK pace
99.4
Average of the two
99.7
DET
Rest days 1
Not a back-to-back
Games in the last 7 days 3
Last 10 net rating +12.7
Free throws per shot 0.23
NYK
Rest days 1
Not a back-to-back
Games in the last 7 days 3
Last 10 net rating -6.4
Free throws per shot 0.19
Projected rotation
Injury report 27 October 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Players ruled out are removed from the win probability. Questionable and doubtful players stay on the last-game assumption and are listed with that status. Last games used are 2026-10-25 and 2026-10-25.
Detroit Pistons
Last played 2026-10-25 · 2 key players projected out
| Player | Last min | Expected | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniss Jenkins | 38 | 27 | -1.8 | — |
| John Collins | 34 | 26 | +3.4 | — |
| Cade Cunningham | 33 | 27 | +8.0 | — |
| Duncan Robinson | 32 | 27 | +7.3 | — |
| Kevin Huerter | 26 | 24 | +2.5 | — |
| Ronald Holland II · fewer minutes | 23 | 18 | -4.5 | — |
| Paul Reed · fewer minutes | 23 | 17 | -0.6 | — |
| Javonte Green · fewer minutes | 22 | 16 | -0.8 | — |
| Isaiah Joe · fewer minutes | 4 | 15 | -1.4 | Questionable |
| Tolu Smith · fewer minutes | 3 | 6 | -8.3 | — |
| Elijah Harkless | — | — | — | Questionable |
| Isaac Jones | — | — | — | Questionable |
| Ausar Thompson | — | — | — | Questionable |
| Jalen Duren · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Ugonna Onyenso · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
New York Knicks
Last played 2026-10-25 · 0 key players projected out
| Player | Last min | Expected | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikal Bridges | 35 | 28 | -1.8 | — |
| Josh Hart | 35 | 31 | -7.0 | — |
| OG Anunoby | 35 | 33 | +3.3 | — |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 33 | 31 | +4.0 | — |
| Jalen Brunson | 32 | 35 | -2.2 | — |
| Landry Shamet · fewer minutes | 22 | 22 | +2.6 | — |
| Tyler Kolek · fewer minutes | 15 | 9 | -4.3 | — |
| Miles McBride · fewer minutes | 13 | 19 | +6.5 | — |
| Andre Drummond · fewer minutes | 7 | 18 | -6.1 | — |
| James Wiseman · fewer minutes | 7 | 17 | -6.0 | — |
| Jose Alvarado · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |