Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 Sydney
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs
Heavy favourite: San Antonio Spurs. Logistic regression is the primary probability because it had the best holdout log loss. The largest contributions toward San Antonio Spurs are Blended net rating and Elo gap. Other rating features can point the other way when this one already carries the same information.
Model agreement
Three separate probabilities. There is no combined model. Home win chance:
Logistic regression · primary
90%
SAC 10%
Gradient boosting
85%
SAC 15%
Elo
89%
SAC 11%
What the logistic model is using
Each number is that feature’s push, in log-odds, after scaling. The model starts from a baseline home log-odds of +0.30. Positive pushes favor San Antonio Spurs. This is not an estimate of what would happen if one statistic changed.
Toward SAS
- Blended net rating+1.12
season net rating blended with last year, home minus away
- Elo gap+0.38
Elo rating, home minus away
- Defensive-rebounding gap+0.21
defensive rebound rate, home minus away
- Rotation-impact gap+0.18
impact of the players projected to play, home minus away
- Home key absences+0.16
home players with 20+ expected minutes projected out
- Recent net rating+0.12
net rating over the last 10 games, home minus away
Toward SAC
- Defensive-rating gap-0.23
season points allowed per 100 possessions, home minus away
- Net-rating gap-0.22
season net rating, home minus away
SAS offence against SAC defence
Season-to-date rates. The last row pairs the offence’s offensive rebound rate with the defence’s own defensive rebound rate.
| Metric | SAS offence | SAC defence |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 | 109.9 | 122.6 |
| Effective FG | 50.7% | 55.9% |
| Turnover rate | 13.4% | 13.5% |
| Offensive boards / defensive boards | 24.1% | 68.4% |
SAC offence against SAS defence
Season-to-date rates. The last row pairs the offence’s offensive rebound rate with the defence’s own defensive rebound rate.
| Metric | SAC offence | SAS defence |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 | 108.1 | 109.9 |
| Effective FG | 50.0% | 55.0% |
| Turnover rate | 14.8% | 16.4% |
| Offensive boards / defensive boards | 25.9% | 78.3% |
Pace and schedule
Season pace describes how many possessions a team usually plays. The average below is only that description. It is not added on top of the win probability, and it is not a predicted score.
SAC pace
101.2
SAS pace
101.9
Average of the two
101.6
SAC
Rest days 1
Not a back-to-back
Games in the last 7 days 3
Last 10 net rating -14.5
Free throws per shot 0.21
SAS
Rest days 2
Not a back-to-back
Games in the last 7 days 3
Last 10 net rating 0.0
Free throws per shot 0.18
Projected rotation
Injury report 27 October 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Players ruled out are removed from the win probability. Questionable and doubtful players stay on the last-game assumption and are listed with that status. Last games used are 2026-10-25 and 2026-10-24.
Sacramento Kings
Last played 2026-10-25 · 2 key players projected out
| Player | Last min | Expected | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach LaVine | 40 | 30 | -4.9 | — |
| Precious Achiuwa | 39 | 31 | +1.3 | — |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 36 | 36 | -2.6 | — |
| Domantas Sabonis | 35 | 29 | +1.4 | — |
| De'Andre Hunter | 29 | 23 | -3.1 | — |
| Jonathan Mogbo · fewer minutes | 18 | 8 | -7.7 | — |
| Daeqwon Plowden · fewer minutes | 16 | 25 | -0.2 | — |
| Emanuel Sharp · fewer minutes | 14 | 15 | +2.1 | — |
| Malik Monk · fewer minutes | 12 | 21 | +3.4 | — |
| Dylan Cardwell · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Keegan Murray · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Sean Pedulla · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Maxime Raynaud · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Ben Simmons · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
San Antonio Spurs
Last played 2026-10-24 · 0 key players projected out
| Player | Last min | Expected | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell | 32 | 32 | +5.4 | — |
| Victor Wembanyama | 29 | 29 | +16.5 | — |
| Dylan Harper | 28 | 27 | +1.1 | — |
| Stephon Castle | 28 | 32 | -2.2 | — |
| Julian Champagnie | 28 | 28 | +5.9 | — |
| De'Aaron Fox · fewer minutes | 28 | 31 | +1.9 | — |
| Keldon Johnson · fewer minutes | 26 | 24 | -0.4 | — |
| Luke Kornet · fewer minutes | 14 | 19 | -5.3 | — |
| Carter Bryant · fewer minutes | 10 | 15 | -12.0 | — |
| Tarris Reed Jr. · fewer minutes | 7 | 4 | -0.9 | — |
| Tobias Harris · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Jayden Quaintance · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |