Wed 28 Oct, 14:00 Sydney
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers
Slight favourite: Los Angeles Lakers. Logistic regression is the primary probability because it had the best holdout log loss. The largest contributions toward Los Angeles Lakers are Defensive-rating gap and Shooting gap. Other rating features can point the other way when this one already carries the same information.
Model agreement
Three separate probabilities. There is no combined model. Home win chance:
Logistic regression · primary
63%
POR 37%
Gradient boosting
62%
POR 38%
Elo
64%
POR 36%
What the logistic model is using
Each number is that feature’s push, in log-odds, after scaling. The model starts from a baseline home log-odds of +0.30. Positive pushes favor Los Angeles Lakers. This is not an estimate of what would happen if one statistic changed.
Toward LAL
- Defensive-rating gap+0.22
season points allowed per 100 possessions, home minus away
- Shooting gap+0.19
effective field-goal percentage, home minus away
- Net-rating gap+0.17
season net rating, home minus away
- Home key absences+0.16
home players with 20+ expected minutes projected out
- Forced-turnover gap+0.16
opponent turnovers per possession, home minus away
Toward POR
- Defensive-rebounding gap-0.22
defensive rebound rate, home minus away
- Opponent-shooting gap-0.20
effective field-goal percentage allowed, home minus away
- Rotation-impact gap-0.15
impact of the players projected to play, home minus away
LAL offence against POR defence
Season-to-date rates. The last row pairs the offence’s offensive rebound rate with the defence’s own defensive rebound rate.
| Metric | LAL offence | POR defence |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 | 126.4 | 101.4 |
| Effective FG | 63.8% | 45.1% |
| Turnover rate | 16.1% | 15.0% |
| Offensive boards / defensive boards | 23.0% | 75.8% |
POR offence against LAL defence
Season-to-date rates. The last row pairs the offence’s offensive rebound rate with the defence’s own defensive rebound rate.
| Metric | POR offence | LAL defence |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 | 125.9 | 113.6 |
| Effective FG | 56.6% | 52.6% |
| Turnover rate | 13.5% | 19.4% |
| Offensive boards / defensive boards | 33.3% | 65.7% |
Pace and schedule
Season pace describes how many possessions a team usually plays. The average below is only that description. It is not added on top of the win probability, and it is not a predicted score.
POR pace
100.1
LAL pace
101.2
Average of the two
100.7
POR
Rest days 3
Not a back-to-back
Games in the last 7 days 2
Last 10 net rating +24.5
Free throws per shot 0.20
LAL
Rest days 1
Not a back-to-back
Games in the last 7 days 3
Last 10 net rating +12.8
Free throws per shot 0.31
Projected rotation
Injury report 27 October 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Players ruled out are removed from the win probability. Questionable and doubtful players stay on the last-game assumption and are listed with that status. Last games used are 2026-10-23 and 2026-10-25.
Portland Trail Blazers
Last played 2026-10-23 · 1 key players projected out
| Player | Last min | Expected | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 38 | 34 | +1.4 | — |
| Damian Lillard | 33 | 33 | +5.2 | — |
| Toumani Camara | 27 | 33 | +2.0 | — |
| Ja Morant | 27 | 27 | +4.8 | — |
| Sidy Cissoko | 26 | 12 | -2.1 | — |
| Jrue Holiday · fewer minutes | 26 | 31 | +4.5 | — |
| Donovan Clingan · fewer minutes | 21 | 26 | +1.3 | — |
| Scoot Henderson · fewer minutes | 21 | 27 | +0.2 | Questionable |
| Robert Williams III · fewer minutes | 18 | 18 | +4.4 | — |
| Vít Krejčí · fewer minutes | 3 | 16 | -2.8 | — |
| Branden Carlson | — | — | — | Questionable |
| Jayson Kent · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Shaedon Sharpe · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| John Tonje · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Chris Youngblood · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
Los Angeles Lakers
Last played 2026-10-25 · 0 key players projected out
| Player | Last min | Expected | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Dončić | 38 | 36 | +8.1 | — |
| Austin Reaves | 36 | 36 | +5.9 | — |
| Ziaire Williams | 30 | 25 | -3.5 | — |
| Walker Kessler | 28 | 30 | -1.5 | Available |
| Matisse Thybulle | 26 | 23 | +5.0 | — |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili · fewer minutes | 21 | 23 | +2.2 | — |
| Quentin Grimes · fewer minutes | 20 | 24 | -4.2 | — |
| Collin Sexton · fewer minutes | 20 | 27 | -4.3 | — |
| Jake LaRavia · fewer minutes | 15 | 28 | -3.4 | — |
| Kevon Looney · fewer minutes | 5 | 14 | +0.2 | — |
| Cameron Carr · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |
| Adou Thiero · ruled out | — | — | — | Out |