US slate
Friday, 23 October 2026
Win probabilities use completed games through 2026-10-26. Logistic regression and gradient boosting are fit through 2026-10-26. Final scores for the 2026-27 season, compared with the pregame projection from each team's previous lineup. The primary number is logistic regression.
2026-27 finals so far: logistic 32 of 52, Elo 30 of 52, boosting 33 of 52.
Games
12
Final
Closest
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Smallest gap from 50%
Strongest favourite
Boston Celtics 66%
Highest logistic probability
Logistic correct
6 of 12
Favourite matched the winner
132
Chicago Bulls
0-1 · pace 108.6
season -39.6 · blend -6.4
125
Milwaukee Bucks
0-1 · pace 101.5
season -11.8 · blend -4.5
Pregame logistic had Milwaukee Bucks at 56%. Chicago Bulls won.
The largest contributions toward Milwaukee Bucks are Shooting gap and Away absences.
No key player sat the last game.
103
New York Knicks
0-1 · pace 103.8
season -5.8 · blend +3.0
107
Boston Celtics
0-1 · pace 98.0
season -8.2 · blend +3.7
Pregame logistic had Boston Celtics at 66%. Boston Celtics won.
The largest contributions toward Boston Celtics are Shooting gap and Away absences.
No key player sat the last game.
128
Atlanta Hawks
1-0 · pace 109.1
season +6.4 · blend +1.9
81
Charlotte Hornets
1-0 · pace 99.6
season +7.0 · blend +3.4
Pregame logistic had Charlotte Hornets at 53%. Atlanta Hawks won.
The largest contributions toward Charlotte Hornets are Away absences and Offensive-rating gap.
No key player sat the last game.
121
Dallas Mavericks
0-1 · pace 98.8
season -18.2 · blend -4.6
105
Indiana Pacers
1-0 · pace 104.0
season +2.9 · blend -4.0
Pregame logistic had Indiana Pacers at 64%. Dallas Mavericks won.
The largest contributions toward Indiana Pacers are Away absences and Opponent-shooting gap.
No key player sat the last game.
115
Minnesota Timberwolves
1-0 · pace 105.6
season +23.7 · blend +4.0
93
Orlando Magic
0-1 · pace 109.1
season -6.4 · blend -0.2
Pregame logistic had Orlando Magic at 59%. Minnesota Timberwolves won.
The largest contributions toward Orlando Magic are Net-rating gap and Away absences.
No key player sat the last game.
112
Toronto Raptors
1-0 · pace 108.6
season +39.6 · blend +5.2
102
Washington Wizards
1-0 · pace 101.5
season +11.8 · blend -5.3
Pregame logistic had Toronto Raptors at 62%. Toronto Raptors won.
The largest contributions toward Toronto Raptors are Blended net rating and Opponent-shooting gap.
No key player sat the last game.
128
Detroit Pistons
1-0 · pace 98.0
season +8.2 · blend +5.2
111
Miami Heat
0-1 · pace 105.6
season -23.7 · blend -0.9
Pregame logistic had Detroit Pistons at 51%. Detroit Pistons won.
The largest contributions toward Detroit Pistons are Blended net rating and Recent net rating.
No key player sat the last game.
114
Houston Rockets
1-0 · pace 98.8
season +18.2 · blend +4.6
110
San Antonio Spurs
0-1 · pace 104.3
season -11.5 · blend +3.5
Pregame logistic had San Antonio Spurs at 59%. Houston Rockets won.
The largest contributions toward San Antonio Spurs are Offensive-rating gap and Away absences.
No key player sat the last game.
119
New Orleans Pelicans
0-1 · pace 104.0
season -2.9 · blend -2.7
120
Utah Jazz
0-1 · pace 102.1
season -19.6 · blend -6.2
Pregame logistic had Utah Jazz at 65%. Utah Jazz won.
The largest contributions toward Utah Jazz are Offensive-rating gap and Away absences.
No key player sat the last game.
111
Memphis Grizzlies
1-0 · pace 102.1
season +19.6 · blend -1.4
108
Golden State Warriors
0-1 · pace 99.2
season -22.2 · blend -2.3
Pregame logistic had Golden State Warriors at 62%. Memphis Grizzlies won.
The largest contributions toward Golden State Warriors are Net-rating gap and Away absences.
No key player sat the last game.
117
LA Clippers
1-0 · pace 101.5
season +24.6 · blend +2.9
125
Los Angeles Lakers
1-0 · pace 99.2
season +22.2 · blend +3.0
Pregame logistic had Los Angeles Lakers at 64%. Los Angeles Lakers won.
The largest contributions toward Los Angeles Lakers are Away absences and Defensive-rating gap.
No key player sat the last game.
128
Portland Trail Blazers
1-0 · pace 96.6
season +42.4 · blend +3.7
120
Sacramento Kings
0-1 · pace 101.5
season -24.6 · blend -7.7
Pregame logistic had Portland Trail Blazers at 52%. Portland Trail Blazers won.
The largest contributions toward Portland Trail Blazers are Blended net rating and Recent net rating.
No key player sat the last game.
Pregame estimates the chance each team wins. It is not a betting product. The favourite labels are bands for reading the probability. Calibration is in the model lab.