US slate

Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Win probabilities use completed games through 2026-10-26. Logistic regression and gradient boosting are fit through 2026-10-26. Injury report 27 October 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Players ruled out are removed from the projection and the win probabilities. Questionable and doubtful players stay on the last completed lineup. Probable and available players are put back in. The primary number is logistic regression.

October 2026

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

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US dates. A dot marks a day with final scores.

2026-27 finals so far: logistic 32 of 52, Elo 30 of 52, boosting 33 of 52.

Games

Still to tip off

Closest

New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls

Smallest gap from 50%

Strongest favourite

Cleveland Cavaliers 83%

Highest logistic probability

Projected absences

Games with 3+ key players out of the last lineup

Thu 29 Oct, 10:00 SydneyHome on the right

MIA

Miami Heat

0-4 · pace 103.2

season -12.4 · blend -2.6

LLLL

ATL

Atlanta Hawks

2-2 · pace 102.4

season +9.0 · blend +3.6

WWLL

34%

66%

Favoured: Atlanta Hawks

The largest contributions toward Atlanta Hawks are Blended net rating and Recent net rating.

Elo 74%Logistic 66%Boosting 61%Models disagree

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 10:00 SydneyHome on the right

WAS

Washington Wizards

2-2 · pace 101.9

season -0.2 · blend -5.1

WLWL

CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

2-1 · pace 104.9

season -0.6 · blend +1.8

LWW

17%

83%

Strong favourite: Cleveland Cavaliers

The largest contributions toward Cleveland Cavaliers are Blended net rating and Elo gap.

Elo 87%Logistic 83%Boosting 78%

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 10:00 SydneyHome on the right

CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-1 · pace 98.2

season -7.1 · blend +0.1

WLWW

DET

Detroit Pistons

3-0 · pace 100.0

season +12.7 · blend +6.7

WWW

36%

64%

Slight favourite: Detroit Pistons

The largest contributions toward Detroit Pistons are Blended net rating and Shooting gap.

Elo 70%Logistic 64%Boosting 62%

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 10:00 SydneyHome on the right

PHI

Philadelphia 76ers

3-1 · pace 104.4

season +2.9 · blend +0.7

WWWL

IND

Indiana Pacers

2-2 · pace 102.6

season +1.5 · blend -3.0

WLWL

62%

38%

Slight favourite: Philadelphia 76ers

The largest contributions toward Philadelphia 76ers are Blended net rating and Elo gap.

Elo 37%Logistic 38%Boosting 30%

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 10:30 SydneyHome on the right

ORL

Orlando Magic

1-2 · pace 103.5

season -6.4 · blend -1.2

LLW

TOR

Toronto Raptors

2-1 · pace 105.1

season +9.5 · blend +3.5

WWL

39%

61%

Slight favourite: Toronto Raptors

The largest contributions toward Toronto Raptors are Blended net rating and Forced-turnover gap.

Elo 61%Logistic 61%Boosting 46%Models disagree

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 11:00 SydneyHome on the right

NYK

New York Knicks

0-3 · pace 99.4

season -6.4 · blend +1.5

LLL

CHI

Chicago Bulls

1-3 · pace 107.6

season -17.4 · blend -7.1

LWLL

57%

43%

Slight favourite: New York Knicks

The largest contributions toward New York Knicks are Blended net rating and Elo gap.

Elo 29%Logistic 43%Boosting 29%Models disagree

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 11:00 SydneyHome on the right

HOU

Houston Rockets

4-0 · pace 99.7

season +9.8 · blend +5.1

WWWW

MIL

Milwaukee Bucks

1-3 · pace 104.3

season -5.3 · blend -4.2

LLLW

69%

31%

Favoured: Houston Rockets

The largest contributions toward Houston Rockets are Blended net rating and Elo gap.

Elo 25%Logistic 31%Boosting 27%

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 11:00 SydneyHome on the right

GSW

Golden State Warriors

1-3 · pace 98.2

season -3.6 · blend -1.3

LLLW

MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-1 · pace 101.0

season +16.4 · blend +6.1

WWWL

23%

77%

Strong favourite: Minnesota Timberwolves

The largest contributions toward Minnesota Timberwolves are Blended net rating and Away absences.

Elo 74%Logistic 77%Boosting 82%

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 11:00 SydneyHome on the right

DEN

Denver Nuggets

1-2 · pace 96.7

season -8.7 · blend +0.4

LWL

NOP

New Orleans Pelicans

0-3 · pace 102.4

season -3.1 · blend -2.8

LLL

73%

27%

Favoured: Denver Nuggets

The largest contributions toward Denver Nuggets are Rotation-impact gap and Blended net rating.

Elo 34%Logistic 27%Boosting 27%

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 12:00 SydneyHome on the right

SAS

San Antonio Spurs

1-2 · pace 101.9

season 0.0 · blend +3.8

LLW

UTA

Utah Jazz

1-3 · pace 100.7

season -8.2 · blend -5.8

LWLL

72%

28%

Favoured: San Antonio Spurs

The largest contributions toward San Antonio Spurs are Blended net rating and Elo gap.

Elo 16%Logistic 28%Boosting 21%Models disagree

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 SydneyHome on the right

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-0 · pace 99.2

season +10.6 · blend +7.8

WWWW

DAL

Dallas Mavericks

2-2 · pace 101.5

season -3.4 · blend -3.3

LWLW

69%

31%

Favoured: Oklahoma City Thunder

The largest contributions toward Oklahoma City Thunder are Blended net rating and Elo gap.

Elo 22%Logistic 31%Boosting 24%

Injury report not yet submitted.

Thu 29 Oct, 13:30 SydneyHome on the right

LAL

Los Angeles Lakers

3-0 · pace 101.2

season +12.8 · blend +3.8

WWW

LAC

LA Clippers

1-2 · pace 102.2

season +3.3 · blend +1.3

WLL

41%

59%

Slight favourite: LA Clippers

The largest contributions toward LA Clippers are Offensive-rating gap and Away back-to-back.

Elo 49%Logistic 59%Boosting 54%Models disagree

Injury report not yet submitted.

Pregame estimates the chance each team wins. It is not a betting product. The favourite labels are bands for reading the probability. Calibration is in the model lab.