US slate
Friday, 30 October 2026
Win probabilities use completed games through 2026-10-26. Logistic regression and gradient boosting are fit through 2026-10-26. Injury report 27 October 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Players ruled out are removed from the projection and the win probabilities. Questionable and doubtful players stay on the last completed lineup. Probable and available players are put back in. The primary number is logistic regression.
2026-27 finals so far: logistic 32 of 52, Elo 30 of 52, boosting 33 of 52.
Games
10
Still to tip off
Closest
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Smallest gap from 50%
Strongest favourite
Boston Celtics 88%
Highest logistic probability
Projected absences
3
Games with 3+ key players out of the last lineup
Charlotte Hornets
3-1 · pace 98.2
season -7.1 · blend +0.1
Washington Wizards
2-2 · pace 101.9
season -0.2 · blend -5.1
Slight favourite: Charlotte Hornets
The largest contributions toward Charlotte Hornets are Blended net rating and Elo gap.
1 key player projected out from the last game.
Chicago Bulls
1-3 · pace 107.6
season -17.4 · blend -7.1
Boston Celtics
2-1 · pace 99.1
season +10.4 · blend +6.1
Heavy favourite: Boston Celtics
The largest contributions toward Boston Celtics are Blended net rating and Away absences.
No key player sat the last game.
Detroit Pistons
3-0 · pace 100.0
season +12.7 · blend +6.7
Brooklyn Nets
0-3 · pace 103.6
season -12.2 · blend -7.6
Favoured: Detroit Pistons
The largest contributions toward Detroit Pistons are Blended net rating and Elo gap.
3 key players projected out from the last game.
New York Knicks
0-3 · pace 99.4
season -6.4 · blend +1.5
Philadelphia 76ers
3-1 · pace 104.4
season +2.9 · blend +0.7
Near even
The largest contributions toward Philadelphia 76ers are Away absences and Forced-turnover gap.
2 key players projected out from the last game.
Orlando Magic
1-2 · pace 103.5
season -6.4 · blend -1.2
Toronto Raptors
2-1 · pace 105.1
season +9.5 · blend +3.5
Slight favourite: Toronto Raptors
The largest contributions toward Toronto Raptors are Blended net rating and Forced-turnover gap.
2 key players projected out from the last game.
Indiana Pacers
2-2 · pace 102.6
season +1.5 · blend -3.0
Miami Heat
0-4 · pace 103.2
season -12.4 · blend -2.6
Strong favourite: Miami Heat
The largest contributions toward Miami Heat are Rotation-impact gap and Net-rating gap.
2 key players projected out from the last game.
Houston Rockets
4-0 · pace 99.7
season +9.8 · blend +5.1
Dallas Mavericks
2-2 · pace 101.5
season -3.4 · blend -3.3
Favoured: Houston Rockets
The largest contributions toward Houston Rockets are Blended net rating and Rotation-impact gap.
3 key players projected out from the last game.
LA Clippers
1-2 · pace 102.2
season +3.3 · blend +1.3
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-1 · pace 101.0
season +16.4 · blend +6.1
Slight favourite: Minnesota Timberwolves
The largest contributions toward Minnesota Timberwolves are Blended net rating and Defensive-rebounding gap.
1 key player projected out from the last game.
Los Angeles Lakers
3-0 · pace 101.2
season +12.8 · blend +3.8
Golden State Warriors
1-3 · pace 98.2
season -3.6 · blend -1.3
Slight favourite: Los Angeles Lakers
The largest contributions toward Los Angeles Lakers are Blended net rating and Shooting gap.
No key player sat the last game.
Denver Nuggets
1-2 · pace 96.7
season -8.7 · blend +0.4
Phoenix Suns
1-2 · pace 99.0
season -14.5 · blend -2.6
Favoured: Denver Nuggets
The largest contributions toward Denver Nuggets are Rotation-impact gap and Blended net rating.
4 key players projected out from the last game.
Pregame estimates the chance each team wins. It is not a betting product. The favourite labels are bands for reading the probability. Calibration is in the model lab.