US slate
Saturday, 24 October 2026
Win probabilities use completed games through 2026-10-26. Logistic regression and gradient boosting are fit through 2026-10-26. Final scores for the 2026-27 season, compared with the pregame projection from each team's previous lineup. The primary number is logistic regression.
2026-27 finals so far: logistic 32 of 52, Elo 30 of 52, boosting 33 of 52.
Games
8
Final
Closest
Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks
Smallest gap from 50%
Strongest favourite
Denver Nuggets 91%
Highest logistic probability
Logistic correct
7 of 8
Favourite matched the winner
110
Miami Heat
0-2 · pace 105.1
season -20.0 · blend -2.2
115
Charlotte Hornets
1-1 · pace 99.7
season -20.1 · blend -0.9
Pregame logistic had Charlotte Hornets at 69%. Charlotte Hornets won.
The largest contributions toward Charlotte Hornets are Away absences and Away back-to-back.
No key player sat the last game.
121
Brooklyn Nets
0-1 · pace 99.6
season -7.0 · blend -6.2
125
Cleveland Cavaliers
0-1 · pace 109.0
season -7.3 · blend +1.6
Pregame logistic had Cleveland Cavaliers at 82%. Cleveland Cavaliers won.
The largest contributions toward Cleveland Cavaliers are Blended net rating and Away absences.
No key player sat the last game.
116
Milwaukee Bucks
0-2 · pace 104.9
season -9.1 · blend -4.7
127
Philadelphia 76ers
2-0 · pace 106.4
season +6.6 · blend +1.0
Pregame logistic had Philadelphia 76ers at 81%. Philadelphia 76ers won.
The largest contributions toward Philadelphia 76ers are Blended net rating and Away absences.
1 key player projected out from the last game.
124
Washington Wizards
1-1 · pace 103.9
season +1.0 · blend -5.7
120
Chicago Bulls
1-1 · pace 108.5
season -16.6 · blend -5.3
Pregame logistic had Chicago Bulls at 73%. Washington Wizards won.
The largest contributions toward Chicago Bulls are Away absences and Net-rating gap.
No key player sat the last game.
122
San Antonio Spurs
0-2 · pace 101.8
season -7.9 · blend +2.8
106
Dallas Mavericks
1-1 · pace 100.7
season -1.0 · blend -2.9
Pregame logistic had San Antonio Spurs at 71%. San Antonio Spurs won.
The largest contributions toward San Antonio Spurs are Blended net rating and Elo gap.
No key player sat the last game.
121
Houston Rockets
2-0 · pace 99.0
season +11.1 · blend +4.5
114
Atlanta Hawks
2-0 · pace 104.5
season +25.8 · blend +5.5
Pregame logistic had Houston Rockets at 59%. Houston Rockets won.
The largest contributions toward Houston Rockets are Net-rating gap and Home absences.
1 key player projected out from the last game.
135
New Orleans Pelicans
0-2 · pace 102.4
season -2.0 · blend -2.6
141
Denver Nuggets
0-1 · pace 92.0
season -13.0 · blend +1.6
Pregame logistic had Denver Nuggets at 91%. Denver Nuggets won.
The largest contributions toward Denver Nuggets are Offensive-rating gap and Rotation-impact gap.
No key player sat the last game.
122
Golden State Warriors
0-2 · pace 98.0
season -12.7 · blend -2.4
131
Phoenix Suns
0-1 · pace 96.6
season -42.4 · blend -3.0
Pregame logistic had Phoenix Suns at 76%. Phoenix Suns won.
The largest contributions toward Phoenix Suns are Net-rating gap and Away back-to-back.
No key player sat the last game.
Pregame estimates the chance each team wins. It is not a betting product. The favourite labels are bands for reading the probability. Calibration is in the model lab.